College football fans who haven't devoutly followed the enslaught of national transfer news since the 2023 season ended will be greeted with some surprises as they tune in for Week 1 action. A projected 36 of the 68 Power Four teams (including Notre Dame) are expected to break in new starting quarterbacks.
Of those 36 projected new starters, 27 are transfers in their first seasons with their new programs, and 20 of those come from other power conference schools. In total, 44 of the 68 expected starters have transferred at some point in their careers.
Former Oregon and Texas Tech quarterback Tyler Shough is now leading Louisville's attack? He sure is. He's one of a handful of seventh-year seniors -- members of the 2018 high school recruiting class -- that are still around. The No. 1 recruit that year? Fourth-year NFL pro Trevor Lawrence.
Like Shough, Oklahoma State's Alan Bowman is on his third Power Four school as he enters Year 2 as the Cowboys' primary quarterback following stints at Texas Tech and Michigan. When Bowman and Shough were true freshmen in 2018, Nebraska starting quarterback Dylan Raiola was in seventh grade.
The eradication of transfer restrictions -- paired with relaxed redshirt rules and the extra season of eligibility provided amid the COVID-19 pandemic -- have created a crop of college football college football quarterbacks that now spans a generational divide.
Breakdown of 2024 Power Four QBs
| School | Name | Whole career at school? | Returning starter? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pitt | Eli Holstein | No | No |
| Stanford | Ashton Daniels* | Yes | Yes |
| California | Fernando Mendoza* | Yes | Yes |
| Virginia | Anthony Colandrea | Yes | Yes |
| SMU | Preston Stone | Yes | Yes |
| Clemson | Cade Klubnik | Yes | Yes |
| Michigan | Alex Orji | Yes | No |
| USC | Miller Moss | Yes | No |
| Penn State | Drew Allar | Yes | Yes |
| Nebraska | Dylan Raiola | N/A | No |
| West Virginia | Garrett Greene | Yes | Yes |
| Kansas | Jalon Daniels | Yes | Yes |
| Iowa State | Rocco Becht | Yes | Yes |
| Arizona | Noah Fifita | Yes | Yes |
| TCU | Josh Hoover | Yes | Yes |
| Texas Tech | Behren Morton | Yes | Yes |
| Kansas State | Avery Johnson | Yes | No |
| Missouri | Brady Cook | Yes | Yes |
| South Carolina | LaNorris Sellers | Yes | No |
| Georgia | Carson Beck | Yes | Yes |
| Alabama | Jalen Milroe | Yes | Yes |
| LSU | Garrett Nussmeier | Yes | No |
| Texas A&M | Conner Weigman | Yes | Yes |
| Oklahoma | Jackson Arnold | Yes | No |
| Tennessee | Nico Iamaleava | Yes | No |
| Georgia Tech | Haynes King | No | Yes |
| Boston College | Thomas Castellanos | No | Yes |
| Virginia Tech | Kyron Drones | No | Yes |
| NC State | Grayson McCall | No | No |
| Wake Forest | Hank Bachmeier | No | No |
| Maryland | Billy Edwards* | No | No |
| UCLA | Ethan Garbers | No | Yes |
| Purdue | Hudson Card | No | Yes |
| Illinois | Luke Altmyer | No | Yes |
| Iowa | Cade McNamara | No | Yes |
| Minnesota | Max Brosmer | No | No |
| Indiana | Kurtis Rourke | No | No |
| BYU | Jake Retzlaff* | No | Yes |
| Colorado | Shedeur Sanders | No | Yes |
| Utah | Cam Rising | No | Yes |
| Oklahoma State | Alan Bowman | No | Yes |
| Houston | Donovan Smith | No | Yes |
| Baylor | Dequan Finn | No | No |
| Auburn | Payton Thorne | No | Yes |
| Florida | Graham Mertz | No | Yes |
| Ole Miss | Jaxson Dart | No | Yes |
| Texas | Quinn Ewers | No | Yes |
| Vanderbilt | Diego Pavia | No | No |
| Arkansas | Taylen Green | No | No |
| Miami | Cam Ward | No | No |
| North Carolina | Max Johnson* | No | No |
| Louisville | Tyler Shough | No | No |
| Syracuse | Kyle McCord | No | No |
| Duke | Maalik Murphy | No | No |
| Florida State | DJ Uiagalelei | No | No |
| Oregon | Dillon Gabriel | No | No |
| Ohio State | Will Howard | No | No |
| Wisconsin | Tyler Van Dyke | No | No |
| Washington | Will Rogers | No | No |
| Northwestern | Mike Wright | No | No |
| Rutgers | Athan Kaliakmanis | No | No |
| Michigan State | Aidan Chiles | No | No |
| Cincinnati | Brendan Sorsby | No | No |
| UCF | KJ Jefferson | No | No |
| Arizona State | Sam Leavitt | No | No |
| Notre Dame | Riley Leonard | No | No |
| Mississippi State | Blake Shapen | No | No |
| Kentucky | Brock Vandagriff | No | No |
*Denotes expected starter according to school depth chart /247Sports insiders.
Seven classes represented
Cam Rising (Utah), Bowman (Oklahoma State) and Shough (Louisville) are still hanging around from the Class of 2018. So is BYU's Gerry Bohannon, who is battling Jake Retzlaff for the Cougars' starting job. On the other end is Raiola, a five-star prospect from the Class of 2024, who is slated to be the only true freshman starter at a Power Four school to open the season. However, 67.6% of projected Power Four starting quarterbacks are in Year 3, 4 or 5 of of their college career.
Recruiting classes of Power Four starting QBs:
2024: 1
2023: 8
2022: 12
2021: 17
2020: 17
2019: 10
2018: 3
Breakdown by recruiting star rating
Six of the eight former five-star prospects beginning the season as Power Four starting quarterbacks are in their first, second or third season of college football. The only former five-stars from the Class of 2021 or earlier are Class of 2021 prospect Quinn Ewers (Texas) and Class of 2020 prospect DJ Uiagalelei (Florida State).
Conversely, all six of the starters who were former two-star or lower prospects are veterans hailing from the Class of 2021 or earlier. Each of them journeyed up from the FCS, Group of Five or junior college ranks. Given time to develop and the freedom to transfer, players such as Minnesota's Max Brosmer-- more on him here -- and Miami's Cam Ward have claimed prominent Power Four roles.
247Sports high school star rating of Power Four QBs:
Five-star: 8
Four-star: 25
Three-star: 29
Two-star or lower: 6
Average CBS Sports 134 preseason ranking based on starting QB's high school star rating:
Two-star or lower: 53.3
Three-star: 41.4
Four-star: 39.9
Five-star: 15.6
It's no surprise that teams with more highly touted quarterbacks average a higher ranking in the preseasonCBS Sports 134 rankings. Teams that can attract five-star quarterbacks are also typically the programs that can bring in elite talent at other positions, too, and those teams tend to fare well.
Transfer-heavy group
Of the 68 projected Power Four starters, 30 are from the Class of 2020 or earlier. Those players are in their fifth, sixth or seventh seasons of college football. Just three of those 30 are playing at the school where they began their career. They are Carson Beck (Georgia), Jalon Daniels (Kansas) and Garrett Greene (West Virginia).
Projected Power Four starting QBs who have transferred at any point:
Have transferred: 44
Have never transferred: 24
Where transfer starters at Power Four schools came from:
Another power conference school: 34
Group of Five, FCS or lower: 10
Upward bound
Seven of the 10 projected Power Four starters that transferred up from a lower level of college football are in their first season with their new program. They are:
- Grayson McCall (Coastal Carolina to NC State)
- Max Brosmer (New Hampshire to Minnesota)
- Kurtis Rourke (Ohio to Indiana)
- Dequan Finn (Toledo to Baylor)
- Diego Pavia (New Mexico State to Vanderbilt)
- Taylen Green (Boise State to Arkansas)
- *Hank Bachmeier (Louisiana Tech to Wake Forest)
*not officially named starter
Conference breakdown
The quarterback breakdown varies from conference to conference. For example, 14 of the 18 projected Big Ten starting quarterbacks have transferred into the league. By contrast, just eight of the SEC's projected 16 starters transferred from out of conference.
Starting QB who transferred in this year:
SEC: 4 of 16 (25%)
Big 12: 4 of 16 (25%)
Big Ten: 9 of 18 (50%)
ACC: 9 of 17 (52.9%)
Starting QB who hasevertransferred:
SEC: 8 of 16 (50%)
Big 12: 9 of 16 (56.3%)
ACC: 12 of 17 (70.6%)
Big Ten: 14 of 18 (77.8%)
Returning starter at quarterback:
Big 12: 11 of 16 (68.8%)
SEC: 8 of 16 (50%)
ACC: 8 of 17 (47.1%)
Big Ten: 5 of 18 (27.8%)
Former 4/5 star prospects:
SEC: 10 of 16 (62.5%)
ACC: 10 of 17 (58.8%)
Big Ten: 9 of 18 (50%)
Big 12: 4 of 16 (25%)
Where they come from
Texas and California produced 41.2% of this year's projected Power Four starting quarterbacks. In total, 24 different states and Canada produced projected P4 quarterback starters.
Power Four starting quarterbacks by home state
Texas: 17
California: 11
Georgia: 7
Florida: 5
Louisiana: 3
Mississippi: 3
Illinois: 2
Kansas: 2
Nevada: 2
Alabama: 1
Arizona: 1
Canada: 1
Connecticut: 1
Hawaii: 1
Michigan: 1
Missouri: 1
New Jersey: 1
New Mexico: 1
North Carolina: 1
Ohio: 1
Oregon: 1
Pennsylvania: 1
South Carolina: 1
Utah: 1
Virginia: 1
